Economic Outlook: Crying wolf
Vice President Joe Biden recently rattled off a list of stakeholders who needed convincing that the United States was serious about reducing its debt.
After a meeting with Washington leaders charged with finding serious spending cuts in advance of an agreement to raise the federal government's line of credit, Biden said, "I'm convinced we can get to a significant down-payment to the $4 trillion we all agree has to be cut in the escalation of the debt over the next 10 years."
The package will be one that "everyone will think is real," he said, "including the international community, including rating agencies, including Democrats and Republicans."
Essentially, everyone is the answer to which stakeholders are looking for meaningful debt reduction, but there is still a distinct batting order that needs to be appeased in a specific sequence and lately that sequence starts with Republicans in Congress, especially a neophyte group of freshmen lawmakers who campaigned against raising the debt ceiling.
The Treasury Department, say some of these freshmen, is crying wolf. "The case has not been made that this is an absolute necessity," said first-term Congressman Bill Huizenga, R-Mich., The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.
Rep. Tom Rooney, R-Fla., echoed that sentiment, stating, "When you say the drop-dead day is going to be August" as the Treasury Department does, "I question that."
"I'll believe it when I see it," he said.
Others believe assets can be sold or some funds shuffled around to postpone the deadline Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has called a catastrophe in the making.
In effect, a failure to raise the debt ceiling would amount to the government volunteering to jump out of the frying pan and into the fire, not much different from a homeowner choosing to walk away from a mortgage loan rather than waiting for a bank to chase him down.
Further, of course, the financial system works on the illusion that the U.S. government is solvent, that future productivity will make up for debts incurred today. That illusion, of course, has its own very real cracks, mostly represented by an aging baby boomer generation that will soon switch from taxpayers to benefit collectors.
Imagine, however, the government stopping Social Security payments, tax refunds, Medicare benefits and government contracts. Even the threat to ignore the Aug. 2 deadline can give investors a confidence meltdown.
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